Strategy adopted by RBI for Financial Inclusion

- Speech delivered by Dr. Deepali Pant Joshi, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India at a workshop organised by Government of Madhya Pradesh at New Delhi on January 24, 2014
One of the major challenges for next decade or more to banks in the country is to capture the banking business of over 50% population of this country of over 120 billion people. Poor people need to be provided with access to financial products at low transaction cost. They need to be provided assistance on the demand side (in terms of financial awareness and literacy) as well as on the supply side (in the form of availability of customized financial products). Taking into account their seasonal inflow of income from agricultural operations, migration from one place to another seasonal and irregular work availability and income, the existing financial system needs to be designed to suit their requirements and to be more responsive to their needs. No doubt banks and regulators play a major role in this, but we also need to think beyond traditional ways and delivery channels to speed up the efforts.
Dr. Raghuram Rajan, Hon’ble Governor, RBI has powerfully enunciated the need for broad based diversified growth leading to rapid reduction in poverty. Governor has also laid down RBI’s developmental measures for the near future on five pillars and one of the most important pillar amongst them is Financial Inclusion where the objective is to expand access of finance to small and medium enterprises, the unorganized sector, the poor, and remote and underserved areas of the country.

The approach adopted for achieving the objectives under Financial Inclusion

RBI’s perspective on Financial Inclusion aims at giving a specific direction to the collaborated efforts to gain synergic benefits. Therefore, we have defined Financial Inclusion as “the process of ensuring access to appropriate financial products and services needed by all sections of the society in general and vulnerable groups such as weaker sections and low income groups in particular at an affordable cost in a fair and transparent manner by mainstream institutional players.”

Reserve Bank of India has made sustained efforts to increase the penetration of formal financial services in unbanked areas, while continuing with its policy of ensuring adequate but viable flow of credit to priority sectors of the economy. We have adopted a structured, planned and integrated approach towards FI which is focusing on improving access to financial services and also encouraging demand for financial services through financial literacy initiatives. Some of the defining features of our approach to FI are:

Institutional Mechanism

Under the institutional mechanism put in place for financial inclusion, we have the Financial Stability and Development Council (FSDC), which has an exclusive mandate for financial inclusion and financial literacy. A separate Technical Group on financial inclusion and financial literacy, under the Chairmanship of a Deputy Governor, has been set up under the aegis of FSDC. The Group has representations from all the financial sector regulators. In order to spearhead efforts towards greater financial inclusion, RBI has constituted a Financial Inclusion Advisory Committee (FIAC) under the Chairmanship of Deputy Governor. The FIAC has few Directors from the Central Board of RBI and experts drawn from NGO sector/other civil society representatives, etc. as members. At the State level, there are State Level Bankers Committee (SLBC) further supported by Lead District Managers (671 Districts) at the district level.

Bank led Model

In India, we have adopted a bank- led model for financial inclusion, which seeks to leverage on technology. The FI initiatives would have to be ICT based and would ride on new delivery models that would need to be developed by the market participants to best suit their requirements.

Our experience has shown that the goal of financial inclusion is better served through mainstream banking institutions as only they have the ability to offer the suite of products required to bring in effective/meaningful financial inclusion. Other players such as mobile companies have been allowed to partner with banks in offering services collaboratively.

Integrated approach – Financial Inclusion & Financial Literacy

Considering that financial Literacy is an important adjunct for promoting financial inclusion, consumer protection and ultimately financial stability, RBI has adopted an integrated approach wherein efforts towards Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy would go hand in hand.

Bouquet of Financial products

In the absence of banks a large number of informal intermediaries had mushroomed, mostly in the rural areas, which were acting as proxy to the banks. Such unregulated entities were in the business of extending only credit products that too at exorbitant rates of interest mostly to the illiterate section of the population. This had resulted in huge indebtedness amongst the poor people. With our renewed efforts under financial inclusion we have now advised banks to ensure that all the financial needs of the customers are met by offering, at the minimum, four basic products to customers, viz.

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The idea is to ensure that customers who are linked to the banking system is provided with all the basic financial products that are required to enhance their income generation capacity thus helping them to come out of poverty. Such an initiative is expected to be a win-win situation for both banks as also the large section of poor people residing in the rural areas.

Combination of Branch and BC Structure

We are advocating a combination of Brick and Mortar structure with Click and Mouse technology for extending financial inclusion, especially in geographically dispersed areas. Banks have to make effective use of technology to provide banking services in remote areas. In addition to creating a large network of small branches in rural areas, the Reserve Bank has permitted banks to utilise the services of intermediaries in providing banking services through the use of business correspondents. The BC model allows banks to do ‘cash in – cash out’ transactions at a location much closer to the rural population, thus addressing the last mile problem.

Leveraging on Technology

Penetrating banking services through the traditional brick and mortar model was expensive for banks. We realized that the task of Financial Inclusion was gigantic and would not be possible without actively leveraging on technology. We have therefore encouraged banks to leverage on technology to attain greater reach and penetration for minimizing the cost of providing financial services in far flung areas of the country. With adoption of technology it has been possible for banks to deliver banking products and services to the doorsteps of villages.

Engaging Business Correspondents: 

The Reserve Bank has permitted banks to engage Business Facilitators (BFs) and Business Correspondents (BCs) as intermediaries for providing financial and banking services. The BC Model allows banks to provide door step delivery of services especially to do ‘cash in – cash out’ transactions, thus addressing the ‘last mile’ problem. The list of eligible individuals/entities who can be engaged as BCs are being widened from time to time and we have adopted a test and learn approach to this process. Now, even for profit organisations excluding NBFCs and Telcos have been permitted to operate as BCs of banks.

Relaxation of KYC norms: 

The strict KYC norms inhibited linkage of common people with the Banking System. Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements for opening bank accounts have been relaxed for small accounts. Further, in order to leverage on the initiative of UIDAI, we have allowed ‘Aadhaar’ as one of the eligible document for meeting KYC requirements and very recently have also allowed banks to provide e-KYC services provided through the Aadhaar platform.

Simplified branch authorisation: 

To address the issue of uneven spread of bank branches, branch licensing norms have been relaxed considerably and banks are now free to open branches in centres with population less than 1 lakh under general permission, subject to reporting.

Opening of branches in unbanked rural centres: 

To further step up the opening of branches in rural areas, banks have been mandated to open at least 25 per cent of the branches in unbanked rural centres. To help facilitate achieving this mandate, banks have been advised to open to open small intermediary brick and mortar structures between the base branch and the unbanked villages. The idea is to create an eco-system for ensuring efficient delivery of services, efficiency in cash management, redressal of customer grievances and closer supervision of BC operations. This is expected to facilitate quicker branch expansion in unbanked rural centres.

Financial Inclusion Plan of banks

We have encouraged banks to adopt a structured and planned approach to financial inclusion with commitment at the highest levels, through preparation of Board approved Financial Inclusion Plans (FIPs). The first phase of FIPs was implemented over the period 2010-2013. The Reserve Bank has used the FIPs to gauge the performance of banks under their FI initiatives. In this direction we have put in place a structured and comprehensive monitoring mechanism for evaluating banks’ performance vis-à-vis their targets. To ensure support of the Top Management of the Bank to the Financial Inclusion process and to ensure accountability of the senior functionaries of the bank, one on one annual review meetings are held with CMDs/CEOs of banks.

A snapshot of the progress made by banks under the Financial Inclusion Plan during the period from April 2010 to March 2013 are as follows:-

  • Banking outlets in villages have increased to nearly 2,68,000 from 67,694 outlets in March 2010.

  • About 7,400 rural branches have been opened during this 3-year period compared with a reduction of about 1300 rural branches during the last two decades.

  • Nearly 109 million Basic Savings Bank Deposit Accounts (BSBDAs) have been added, taking the total number of BSBDA to 182 million. The share of ICT-based accounts has increased substantially. The percentage of ICT accounts to total BSBDAs increased from 25 per cent in March 2010 to 45 per cent in March 2013.

  • With the addition of nearly 9.48 million farm sector households during this period, 33.8 million households have been provided with small entrepreneurial credit as at the end of March 2013.
  • With the addition of nearly 2.24 million nonfarm sector households during this period, 3.6 million households have been provided with small entrepreneurial credit as at the end of March 2013.
  • About 490 million transactions have been carried out in ICT-based accounts through BCs during the three-year period.

Banking outlets

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We have now created a large banking network and have also managed to open a large number of small accounts. The focus under the FI plan has now shifted towards leveraging the banking network created for extending other products viz. credit, etc. which will help make the business more viable for banks. This would also ensure that the large number of accounts opened see large volume of transactions taking place and people reap the benefits of getting linked to the formal financial institutions.

Roadmap for providing Banking Services in unbanked villages: 

With financial inclusion gaining increasing recognition as a business opportunity and with all banks geared to increase presence, we adopted a phase-wise approach to provide banking services in all unbanked villages in the country. On completion of the first phase where nearly 74000 villages with population more than 2000 were provided with a banking outlet, we are now in the second phase where the remaining unbanked villages, numbering close to 4,90,000, have been identified in villages less than 2000 population and allocated to banks, for opening of banking outlets by Match 2016. Under the roadmap for provision of banking facilities in villages with less than 2000 population, SLBC, Madhya Pradesh has identified and allotted 47660 unbanked villages among various, out of which 18986 unbanked villages are required to be covered by March 2014.

Direct Benefit Transfer – The GoI has plans to route the social security payments through the banking network by leveraging on the Aadhaar Enabled Payment System based platform. In order to ensure smooth roll out of the Government’s Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) initiative, banks have been advised to open accounts of all eligible individuals and to seed the existing and new accounts with Aadhaar numbers.

Financial Literacy – We have realized that Financial Literacy is an important adjunct for promoting financial inclusion. We have adopted an integrated approach, wherein our efforts towards Financial Inclusion and Financial Literacy go hand in hand. Through Financial literacy and education, we disseminate information on the general banking concepts to diverse target groups, including school and college students, women, rural and urban poor, pensioners and senior citizens to enable them to make informed financial decisions. To support this we have nearly 800 financial literacy centres set up by banks. We have designed a mass scale Financial Literacy Program with an objective to integrate the financially excluded population with low level of income and low literacy level with the formal financial system. Financial Literacy Centres organize Outdoor Literacy camps which are spread over a period of three months and delivered in three phases wherein along with creating awareness, accounts are also opened in the Literacy camps.

Way forward – Issues and Challenges

Structure

With adoption of new branchless delivery channels by banks, there is a need for banks to revamp the structure for carrying out banking operations. There cannot be a fixed structured defined which can be adopted by all the banks. Each bank has to based on its current architecture develop a structure that can enhance its financial inclusion efforts. This would entail the following:-
  • Review of the HR policies with respect to recruitment of staff in view of the FI requirements. Separate cadre of staff can be thought off for catering to the needs of providing banking services in far flung rural areas.
  • Banks have to think and act differently and make themselves more flexible so as to meet even the smallest requirements of the rural population.

BC Model

There are many challenges being faced while implementing BC model. Sustainability and scalability of the BC model is essential. More and more innovative products will have to be introduced which would benefit both banks as well as the rural people and at the same time make the BC model more viable. Review of the cash management practices for delivery of banking services through the branchless modes need to be done for ensuring scaling up of the various models.

Transactions

During the first phase of our FI initiative, we have had success as regards opening of banking outlets by banks and also in opening bank accounts for large number of individuals. Going forward our idea is to enable more transactions in these accounts by providing more credit products, which will not only help rural people to avail of credit at comparatively lower rates of interest but at the same time also make the BC model viable for banks. Banks have been advised to leverage upon the Direct Benefit Transfer initiative of the Government of India for linking all the individuals to the banking system and for utilizing the large amounts likely to be credited in these accounts for encouraging issue of deposit and credit products.

Collaboration

Finally, financial inclusion cannot be achieved without the active involvement of all stakeholders like RBI, other financial regulators, banks, governments, NGOs, civil societies, etc. The current policy objective of inclusive growth with financial stability cannot be achieved without ensuring universal financial inclusion. Banks alone will not be able to achieve this unless an entire support system would be partnering with them in this mission. All the stakeholders need to join hands and make it possible.

Thank you.


Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience with Crisis Response and Policy Exit

Speech by Shri Deepak Mohanty, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India at the Reserve Bank Staff College (RBSC), Chennai, December 26, 2013

I thank Principal Uma Subramaniam for this opportunity to interact with you on unconventional monetary policy. The seminar is topical and timely. It is now 5 years since the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008, which evoked unprecedented monetary policy activism – both conventional and unconventional – across the advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs). It is for the first time on December 18, 2013 that the US Fed announced concrete measures to exit from unconventional monetary policy in a calibrated manner starting January 2014.

The Indian economy like other EMEs was affected both by the global financial crisis post-Lehman and the announcement of likely exit by the US Fed in May 2013. We also resorted to both conventional and unconventional policies not only in response to the crisis but also to the announcement of exit, though there were qualitative differences in these responses.

Against this backdrop, I will begin by distinguishing unconventional monetary policy from conventional policy, highlight the contours of unconventional policies in major advance economies and review the impact of such policies. I will then turn to the impact on India and our monetary policy response. I will end by drawing a few broad conclusions.

Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy

Conventional monetary policy is understood as central banks operating with a short-term policy interest rate in the money market to signal the stance of monetary policy and in the process influence the term structure of market interest rates to achieve the objectives of price stability with sustainable growth. Price stability is not an end in itself. Price stability, defined as a low and stable inflation, is considered a prerequisite for sustainable growth over the medium-term. It is believed that there is no trade-off between growth and inflation over the medium-term. Even countries which have chosen inflation targeting framework try to stabilise output around its potential and inflation around its target level. Hence, normally in the event of a shock when either or both the parameters drift from their targets, the objective is to bring it back to target over the medium-term. However, conventional monetary policy has a limiting condition of ‘zero lower bond’. For example, in the event of an extreme shock, as it happened during the global financial crisis, when policy rates were brought down close to zero, further monetary stimulus was not possible through conventional monetary policy.

When central banks look beyond their traditional instrument of policy interest rate, monetary policy takes an unconventional character. It essentially means using quantity instruments for expanding the balance sheet of the central bank. It can take different forms: quantitative easing (QE) through direct long-term asset purchase by the central bank, credit easing (CE) by the central bank directly intervening in a particular segment of the credit market. Both QE and CE can be accompanied by dilution of collateral standards by the central bank expanding the list of collateral beyond its traditional preference for low risk sovereign bonds. Unconventional monetary policy is invariably accompanied by forward guidance regarding the future path of monetary policy to work on the expectations channel. This is because the efficacies of asset purchases programme depend on the behaviour of market participants and financial entities. It is likely that market participants may not alter their behaviour without knowing what the central bank will do in the future with regard to these instruments.

In the event of a crisis, it is not unusual for central banks to expand their balance sheets. The greatest received wisdom in central banking is the lender of last resort (LOLR) function based on the Bagehot principle that, “the central bank should lend freely against good collateral at a penal rate”1 . In fact, many early central banks including the US Fed were instituted to largely discharge this function. Monetary policy as we understand today was alien then. It is a different matter that the recent global financial crisis tested the limits of Bagehot principle as never before.

Contours of Unconventional Monetary Policy

Let me now turn to how the US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) unveiled their unconventional monetary policies. I may mention that the BoJ was using unconventional monetary policy much earlier as Japan went into prolonged deflation from the late 1990s.

The global financial crisis which erupted with collapse of major financial institutions in advanced economies was unprecedented in its scale. Not only did it lead to a sharp decline in asset prices, freezing of credit markets, and the loss of confidence in the building blocks of the financial system, its impact was magnified through quick transmission to other economies as well. Monetary authorities in the advanced economies were the first to resort to aggressive monetary easing first by reducing policy rates. However, key channels of conventional monetary policy were severely impaired during the crisis as policy rates in most advanced economies approached zero lower bound (Chart 1).

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Taking cognisance of the severity of the crisis and concerns of economic recession, central banks used their balance sheets in unconventional ways to augment liquidity (Table 1). The QE programmes initially attempted to alleviate financial market distress, but this purpose soon broadened to include achieving inflation targets, stimulating the real economy, and containing the European sovereign debt crisis (Fawley and Neely, 2013)2. Now let us discuss a little about the rationale for unconventional policies undertaken across major economies.

Table 1: Unconventional Monetary Policy During the Crisis
Central BankLiquidity ProvisionForward Guidance*
InstrumentsCollateralsCounterparties
ECBLong-term Refinancing Operations (LTROs)Securities Markets ProgrammeOutright Monetary Transactions (OMTs)Govt. BondsSovereign paperMarketable debt instrumentsBanksCounterparties eligible for Eurosystem monetary policy operationsYes,
Qualitative ‘open-ended’ guidance
Bank of EnglandAsset Purchase Program (AAP)Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS)Long term Govt. bonds and private assetsABS, MBS, covered bonds, and sovereign and
central bank debt
Non-banks, with banks as intermediariesBanks and Building societiesYes
Explicit guidance linked to unemployment and inflation threshold
Bank of JapanComprehensive monetary easing programmesQuantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQME)Japanese govt. bonds (JGBs), corporate bonds, CPs, exchange traded funds (ETFs), Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITS)JGBs of longer maturity, ETFs, J-REITSBanks and financial institutions (FIs)Banks/FIsYes,
‘Open-ended’ guidance linked to qualitative and quantitative easing
US FedTerm Auction Facility (TAF)Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP)Operation TwistABS, MBS, treasuries,
agency bondsTreasuries, agency bonds, MBSlonger term treasuries
All depository institutionsIncluding Non-banksYes
Move from ‘open-ended’ to ‘time-contingent’ to ‘state- contingent’ threshold based guidance
Source: 1. IMF (2013), “Unconventional monetary policies – recent experience and prospects”, April 18.
2. Bank of England (2013), “Monetary policy trade-offs and forward guidance”, August.
In the US, immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when slow growth and high unemployment emerged as major concerns, the Fed announced the policy of quantitative easing (QE) in November 2008. The first two rounds of QEs reactivated financial markets, but failed to spur growth. Under ‘Operation Twist’ instituted in September 2011, the Fed took initiative of buying longer-term Treasuries and simultaneously selling some of the shorter-dated securities to bring down long-term interest rates which continued till December 2012. With a view to putting in place a stronger version QE, it launched QE3 in September 2012. Under QE3, the Fed started purchasing US$85 billion of fixed-income securities per month. The Fed intended to keep QE3 in effect until unemployment falls to 6.5 per cent or inflation rises to 2.5 per cent. In addition to QE3, the Fed gave a forward guidance that it would keep short-term rates low through 2015. As economic parameters showed improvement, the Fed started talking about exit, popularly known as the tapering of bond buying in May 2013. Subsequently, it announced to slow the pace of the bond buying program by US$ 10 billion per month from January 2014.

In the UK, after reducing the policy rate (i.e., Bank Rate) to 0.5 per cent in March 2009, the Bank of England (BoE) started its asset purchase programmes which consisted almost exclusively of government bonds from the non-bank private sector. Subsequently, the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) was put in place in July 2012 with the aim of incentivising banks and building societies to boost their lending to the UK real economy3.

Japan’s economy had deteriorated for nearly 15 years under the threat of deflation. To overcome deflation, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) engaged in a wide range of monetary easing efforts − including the implementation of the zero interest rate policy, the quantitative easing policy and comprehensive monetary easing, but there have been no easily derived concrete results4. Following the crisis, the BoJ embarked on an ambitious asset purchase program to combat deflation. In October 2012, it announced purchase of Japanese government bonds (JGBs), commercial paper, corporate bonds, exchange traded funds (ETF), Japanese real estate investment trusts (J-REITS). In April 2013, BoJ announced Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing Program under which it purchases JGBs, ETFs and J-REITs with the goal of increasing the monetary base by 60-70 trillion JPY annually, increasing the average maturity of JGBs held from three to seven years and meeting the 2 per cent inflation target in about two years.

In the euro area, concerns over counter-party risk eventually led to drying up of interbank lending by early 2009. The European Central Bank (ECB) responded in May 2009, by reducing its main refinancing rate to 1 per cent and by introducing 12-month LTROs and the covered bond purchase program (CBPP). The ECB substantially extended its liquidity provision by offering unlimited longer-term refinancing operations. The ECB also purchased some securities outright in distressed markets through its securities markets program (SMP), which was, however, later replaced by the pledge to intervene more decisively through Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs).

The unconventional measures undertaken have involved extraordinary central bank lending, expanding central bank balance sheets substantially (Chart 2). We learn from text books and the inflation experiences of the 1970s that a sharp increase in base money could be inflationary. On the contrary, in the current episode inflation declined below target levels in many advanced countries.

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Partly the explanation lies in the fact that despite such increase in the size of balance sheets, broad money supply did not expand significantly. This was due to perceptible decline in money multiplier on account of banks building up cash reserves on being risk averse and to conserve on required capital rather than lending to the real economy (Chart 3). Moreover, with interest rates at near zero level, the opportunity costs of holding money for the money holding sector also fell. Another interesting explanation is that inflation expectations remained well anchored, meaning once economic entities believe that inflation will not go up it does not go up. Further, with the economy operating below its capacity the scope for inflation from wage increase is not there. While consumer price inflation may not rise in the short run, it cannot be presumed that asset price inflation will not go up given the excess liquidity.

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The large scale economic downturn accompanying the financial crisis also led to activation of counter-cyclical fiscal policy of unprecedented magnitude. The fiscal measures focused on improving the balance sheet of the financial and corporate sectors as reflected in large scale bailouts in the US and other advanced economies. Reflecting such fiscal stimulus measures, advanced economies witnessed significant deterioration in their fiscal position as reflected in high public debt to GDP ratios (Chart 4). Let me now turn to the experience of EMEs.

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Experience of EMEs

Initially, it was viewed that EMEs would remain insulated from global financial meltdown on the back of the significant buffers they have built over the years, which included substantial foreign exchange reserves, improved policy frameworks and generally robust banking sector and corporate balance sheets. However, as the crisis deepened following the failure of Lehman Brothers and resulted in heightened risk aversion and global deleveraging, the EMEs were also affected in varying degrees.

The contagion from the global financial crisis also warranted swift monetary and fiscal policy responses in EMEs with a view to ensuring orderly functioning of markets, preserving financial stability, and moderating its adverse effects on growth. In the process, their policy responses became more synchronised with global efforts (Mohanty, 2011)5.

While both developed economies and EMEs resorted to conventional and unconventional monetary measures, there were certain differences in terms of their timing, types and magnitudes. First, while in the advanced economies the switchover was from conventional monetary tools to unconventional measures due to policy rates approaching zero, in many EMEs, unconventional foreign exchange easing and domestic liquidity augmenting measures preceded the conventional measures of policy rate cuts. Second, while central banks in EMEs relied mostly on direct instruments such as reserve requirements to ease domestic liquidity, central banks in advanced countries resorted to various liquidity providing operations through relaxation of counter-parties, collaterals and maturity. Third, central banks in advanced countries extensively used credit and quantitative easing measures which led to large expansion of their balance sheets unlike in EMEs. Fourth, while in advanced economies fiscal support aimed at rescuing the financial sector from the crisis situation, in EMEs they were generally meant to address the deficiency in aggregate demand. Let me now turn to some of the consequences of unconventional policy.

Impact of Unconventional Policies

As most of the unconventional monetary policy measures were undertaken keeping in view the domestic economies, the attendant increase in global liquidity appears to have impacted a range of asset classes in both advanced and emerging economies (Chart 5). There are studies which find significant impact of QE. They suggest reduction in US treasury yields around 100 basis points, corporate bond yields by 80 basis points, and reduction in the range of 20-80 basis points in other advanced economies6. In case of some EMEs, the evidence suggested high capital inflow pressure, rapid domestic credit growth and domestic inflationary pressures.

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Furthermore, indications about the possible withdrawal since the talk about US taper in May 2013 has caused volatility in financial markets in EMEs and impacted currency valuations as capital retreated back to the US in anticipation of higher interest rates. EMEs, particularly with large current account and fiscal deficits, were severely impacted. Let me turn to our experience with the crisis, and now with the talk of taper.

Indian Experience with the Crisis and Policy Exit

Until the emergence of the global crisis, India had experienced a phase of high growth along with low and stable inflation. Growth was largely driven by high domestic demand – growing domestic investment financed mostly by domestic savings and sustained consumption demand. Sequential financial sector reforms, rule-based fiscal policy and forward looking monetary policy together contributed to the overall improved macroeconomic performance.

Following the emergence of the crisis, India, initially remained somewhat insulated to the global developments, but eventually was impacted significantly through all the channels – financial, real and more importantly, the confidence channel (Subbarao, 2009)7. This could be attributed to the global nature of the crisis on the one hand and accelerated trade and financial integration of the Indian economy with the world on the other.

The impact of the crisis was first visible on India’s financial markets in the form of tightening of liquidity and higher volatility in all market segments along with sharp decline in stock prices. Risk aversion on the part of global investors resulted in moderation in capital inflows and exchange rate depreciation. Credit growth decelerated reflecting weakening business confidence. Growth, which was already on a cyclical moderation in the first half of 2008-09, decelerated significantly during the second half. As a result, growth declined to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 from the preceding 5-year average of 8.7 per cent per annum (Table 2).

Table 2: Behaviour of Select Macroeconomic Indicators in India
2003-04 to 2007-08 (average)2008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-14 (Latest)
Real GDP Growth (%)8.76.78.69.36.25.04.8
WPI Inflation Rate (average) (%)5.58.13.89.68.97.47.5
CPI Inflation Rate (average) (%)5.09.112.410.48.410.411.2
Non-food Credit Growth (%)26.717.817.121.316.814.014.7
Centre’s Fiscal Deficit (% of GDP)3.66.06.54.85.75.2
Overnight Call Rate (%)5.67.13.25.88.28.18.6
10-year G-Sec Yield (%)7.07.57.27.98.48.28.8
Exchange Rate (Rs./$) (end-March)43.150.945.144.651.254.461.9
Current Account Deficit (% GDP)-0.3-2.3-2.8-2.8-4.2-4.8-1.2

Restoring normalcy in financial markets, ensuring normal flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy as well as limiting the adverse impact on the real sector of the economy assumed policy priority. The Reserve Bank, like most other central banks, took a number of conventional and unconventional measures to limit the adverse impact of the contagion on the Indian financial markets and the economy. These included augmenting domestic and foreign exchange liquidity and a sharp reduction in the policy rate. The Reserve Bank used multiple instruments such as the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), open market operations (OMO), cash reserve ratio (CRR) and securities under the market stabilisation scheme (MSS) to augment the liquidity in the system.

These measures were supported by fiscal stimulus packages which raised the fiscal deficit of the Central Government by about 3.5 per cent of GDP to 6.0 per cent in 2008-09 (Chart 6).

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On the back of substantial monetary and fiscal stimulus, growth bounced back quickly. However, inflation also picked up. Consequently, the policy focus shifted to exit from accommodative monetary policy in a calibrated manner starting in October 2009. To begin with all special liquidity measures were withdrawn which was followed by hikes in policy rate. As the real policy rate turned positive it started to have an impact on inflation.

Going into the financial year 2012-13, growth declined and headline WPI inflation showed a clear sign of moderation. This prompted the Reserve Bank to reduce the policy rate (Chart 7).

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As the economic conditions appeared to be stabilising, volatility in the financial market returned following the announcement in May 2013 of the Fed’s intention of likely tapering of QE. This prompted the Reserve Bank to resort to somewhat unconventional monetary policy measures besides drawing down of foreign exchange reserves to meet the immediate shortfall (Chart 8). Let me give you the flavour of key measures.

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  • In terms of monetary policy, the upper bound of the policy rate corridor (i.e., MSF rate) was raised by 200 basis points and the quantity of central bank liquidity available through the LAF window was restrained. This had the desired effect of tightening the monetary conditions and raising the effective policy rate sharply to the MSF rate.

  • In order to signal that the above measure is temporary so that the interest rates at the longer end do not harden a form of operation twist was tried by conducting outright OMO purchase of government securities alongside sale of short-term government cash management bills. This inverted the yield curve, though accompanied by some increase in long-term rates.

  • With a view to containing the current account deficit (CAD) on the balance of payments (BoP), gold imports were restricted.

  • The non-resident deposit schemes and banks’ borrowing abroad were further liberalised with incentives for swapping these inflows directly with the Reserve Bank. This substantially augmented foreign exchange reserves despite some outflow on account of directly meeting the foreign exchange requirement of oil imports.

As portfolio capital outflows waned and BoP improved, stability returned to the foreign exchange market. This prompted the Reserve Bank to unwind the bulk of the exceptional measures and normalise monetary policy by restoring the policy interest rate corridor to its original position and the repo rate to its signalling role of policy. Though the policy repo rate was increased by 25 basis points each in September and November 2013, this was more on considerations of emerging growth and inflation balance.

Conclusion

Let me conclude.

First, the global financial crisis triggered unprecedented policy activism by advance country central banks. They resorted to unconventional monetary policy of the nature and scale unthinkable hitherto.

Second, as we complete over 5 years of unconventional monetary policy of QE and CE, the question is: did it succeed? While it is too early to say, opinion remains divided. Thus far, with unconventional policies, the central banks have been far less successful in stimulating growth8. While it may not have improved general monetary transmission and prompted sustainable recovery, it did have significant impact on the financial market. The counterfactual of what would have happened without QE is not known? In any case, it seems to have prevented a deeper recession.

Third, the spillover effect of QE on commodity markets and emerging market economies (EMEs) has been significant. This has resulted in increased volatility of capital flows and elevated asset prices. The initiation of exit from QE has also created additional macroeconomic challenges for EMEs including India.

Fourth, the Indian economy and financial markets were significantly impacted by the global financial crisis and the recent signalling of exit from QE by the Fed. This prompted the Reserve Bank to resort to both conventional and unconventional monetary policy alongside other regulatory policies to stabilise markets.

Finally, while the exit from QE increases uncertainties in the financial market, it is increasingly felt that continuation of unconventional monetary policy for long could create risks in the global economy it sought to address by preventing deleveraging and appropriate pricing of risks. In addition, the current policy response has increased sovereign risk in a number of countries which circumscribes the ability of policy to cushion further unexpected shocks.

Thank you.

* Speech by Shri Deepak Mohanty, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India at the Reserve Bank Staff College (RBSC), Chennai, December 26, 2013. The assistance provided by Binod B. Bhoi and Rajeev Jain in preparation of this paper is acknowledged.
1Bagehot Walter (1873), Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market, King &Co., London; reprinted Wiley, New York 1999.
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